The Effect Of Food Inflation, Per Capita Income and Consumer Spending On ASEAN Food Security
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64243/JODIGBI.01.2.01Keywords:
Food Inflation, Per Capita Income, Consumer Spending, ASEAN Country Food SecurityAbstract
This study aims to analyze the influence of food inflation, per capita income, and consumer spending on food security in four ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, during the period 2013 to 2022. Using a quantitative approach with panel regression analysis, this study processed secondary data from various official sources, such as FAO, World Bank, and the Economist Intelligence Unit. The results of the study showed that independent variables, namely food inflation, per capita income and consumer spending, were able to explain the dependent variable, namely food security by 74%, while the remaining 25.3% was explained by other variables outside the model. This research provides important implications for policymakers in ASEAN countries in formulating strategies that can stabilize food prices, improve economic welfare, and optimize food distribution and accessibility to achieve more sustainable food security in the region.
References
A.W, V. T., Fitriyansi, A. E., Febriantsi, M., Lesmana, M. E., Lukman, R. M., & Budiasih, B. (2023). Pengaruh Konsumsi Masyarakat Indonesia terhadap Ketahanan Pangan Nasional. Seminar Nasional Official Statistics, 2023(1), 525–536. https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1711
ADB (Asian Development Bank). (2023). Inequality in Asia: Causes and Consequences. Manila: ADB.
Afifuddin, M. (2022). Subjek-Subjek Algoritmik: Perspektif Sosiologi Tentang Dunia Digital. Bantul: Jejak Pustaka.
Akter, S., & Basher, S. A. (2014). The impacts of food price and income shocks on household food security and economic well-being: Evidence from rural Bangladesh. Global Environmental Change, 25, 150–162.
Alna, A. P. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi Terhadap Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Kota Sukabumi. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Manajemen Vol.1 No.2 Juni 2024, 146–157.
Alisjahbana, A., & Yusuf, A. (2020). Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 56(3), 267–283.
Anderson, M. D. (2008). Rights-based food systems and the goals of food systems reform. Agriculture and Human Values, 25(4), 593–608. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10460-008-9151-z
Andriansi. (2022). Perubahan Pola Konsumsi Masyarakat Sebelum Dan Sesudah Masa Pandemi COVID-19. Eksis.
Arellano, M. (1993). On the testing of correlated effects with panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 59(1–2), 87–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(93)90040-C
Asian Development Bank (ADB). (2023). Inequality in Asia: Causes and Consequences. Manila: ADB.
Azhar, A. L., Suliyanto, S., Chamidah, N., Ana, E., & Amelias, D. (2023). Pemodelan Indeks Ketahanan Pangan di Indonesia Berdasarkan Pendekatan Regresi Logistik Ordinal Data Panel Efek Acak. Jurnal Ketahanan Nasional, 29(2), 166. https://doi.org/10.22146/jkn.86511
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2023). Statistik Sosial dan Ekonomi. Jakarta: BPS.
Baffes, J., & Fanes, G. (2021). Food Price Dynamics: Understanding the Impact of Global Events. World Bank Economic Review, 35(3), 677–698.
Baltagi, B. H., Feng, Q., & Kao, C. (2012). A Lagrange Multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a Fixed Effects panel data model. Journal of Econometrics, 170(1), 164–177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004
Bogmans, C. (2024). How do Economic Growth and Food Inflation Affect Food Insecurity? IMF Working Papers, 2024(188), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400287336.001
Bozsik, N., Cubillos, T. J. P., Stalbek, B., Vasa, L., & Magda, R. (2022). Food security management in developing countries: Influence of economic factors on their food availability and access. PloS One, 17(7), e0271696. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271696
Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1979). A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica, 47(5), 1287–1294. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911963
Brinkman, H.-J., De Pee, S., Sanogo, I., Subran, L., & Bloem, M. W. (2010a). High food prices and the global financial crisis have reduced access to nutritious food and worsened nutritional status and health. The Journal of Nutrition, 140(1), 153S–161S. https://doi.org/10.3945/jn.109.110767
Burchi, F., & De Muro, P. (2012). A human development and capability approach to food security: Conceptual framework and informational basis. Background Paper, 8.
Christianingrum, R. &. (2019). Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Inflasi Inti Di Indonesia. Jurnal Budget.
Chung, C., & Myers Jr, S. L. (1999). Do the poor pay more for food? An analysis of grocery store availability and food price disparities. Journal of Consumer Affairs, 33(2), 276–296. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6606.1999.tb00071.x
Coleman-Jensen, A., Rabbitt, M. P., Gregory, C. A., & Singh, A. (2018). Household Food Security in the United States in 2018. www.ers.usda.gov
Compton, J., Wiggins, S., & Keats, S. (2010). Impact of the global food crisis on the poor: what is the evidence. London: Overseas Development Institute.
Cooksey, R. W. (2020). Descriptive statistics for summarising data. In Illustrating Statistical Procedures: Finding Meaning in Quantitative Data (pp. 61–139). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-2537-7_5
Devsi, L. Y. (2020). Model sosial ekonomi dan ketahanan pangan rumah tangga di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan, 28(2), 103–115.
Dewanti, S. (2020). Keragaman Konsumsi Pangan Rumah Tangga di Provinsi Jawa Tengah. Jurnal Kawistara, 10(3), 282. https://doi.org/10.22146/kawistara.46787
Dowler, E. A., Kneafsey, M., Lambie, H., Inman, A., Collier, R., & Dowler, E. (2011). Thinking about “food security”: engaging with UK consumers. http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/09581596.asp
Drewnowski, A., & Darmon, N. (2005). Food choices and diet costs: An economic analysis. The Journal of Nutrition, 135(4), 900–904. https://doi.org/10.1093/jn/135.4.900
Edgerton, D., & Shukur, G. (1999). Testing autocorrelation in a system perspective. Econometric Reviews, 18(4), 343–386. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939908800351
Erokhin, V., & Gao, T. (2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on trade and economic aspects of food security: Evidence from 45 developing countries. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(16), 5775. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17165775
Farrar, D. E., & Glauber, R. R. (1967). Multicollinearity in regression analysis: The problem revisited. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 49(1), 92–107. https://doi.org/10.2307/1937887
Farsund, A. A., Daugbjerg, C., & Langhelle, O. (2015). Food security and trade: Reconciling discourses in the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Trade Organization. Food Security, 7(2), 383–391. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0428-y
Fauzan, H. (2023). Perilaku Konsumtif Mahasiswa Terhadap Jual Beli Online Dalam Perspektif Islam. Business and Management Journal, 64–75.
Firdaus, M. (2021). Disparitas Harga Pangan Strategis Sebelum dan Saat Pandemi COVID-19. Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia, 10(2), 107–120. https://doi.org/10.52813/jesi.v10i2.104
Fikriman. (2020). Indikator Yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Ketahanan Pangan Di Kabupaten Bungo Provinsi Jambi. Jurnal Galung Tropika, 9(3), 348–355.
Geisser, S. (1974). A predictive approach to the Random Effect Model. Biometrika, 61(1), 101–107. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/61.1.101
Ginting, N., & Adji, S. (2022). Poverty and Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Review. Indonesian Journal of Economics and Business, 1(2), 12–24.
Green, R., Cornelsen, L., Dangour, A. D., Turner, R., Shankar, B., Mazzocchi, M., & Smith, R. D. (2013). The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: Systematic review with meta-regression. BMJ, 346. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f3703
Greenland, S., & Robins, J. M. (1985). Estimation of a common effect parameter from sparse follow-up data. Biometrics, 41(1), 55–68. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530643
Gujarati, D. N. (2021). Essentials of Econometrics. Sage Publications.
Hadi, S. (2020). Food Security and Food Safety in Indonesia. Journal of Food Security, 12(2), 100–110.
Hafid, H., Soekartono, & Purnomo, H. (2020). The Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth in Southeast Asia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 18(1), 1–15.
Harris, J., Nguyen, P. H., Tran, L. M., & Huynh, P. N. (2020). Nutrition transition in Vietnam: Changing food supply, food prices, household expenditures, diet and nutrition outcomes. Food Security, 12(5), 1141–1155. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-020-01096-x
Hedges, L. V. (1994). Fixed Effects Models. In The Handbook of Research Synthesis (pp. 285–299). Russell Sage Foundation.
Huang, L.-S., & Chen, J. (2008). Analysis of variance, coefficient of determination and F-test for local polynomial regression. The Annals of Statistics, 36(4), 1609–1635. https://doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS531
Jones, A. D., Ngure, F. M., Pelto, G., & Young, S. L. (2013). What are we assessing when we measure food security? A compendium and review of current metrics. Advances in Nutrition, 4(5), 481–505. https://doi.org/10.3945/an.113.004119
Kalaba, Y., Wildansi Pingkan S, H., Erny, Damayanti, L., Akrab, A., Yusuf, R., Nurdin, M. F., & Walalangi, J. Y. (2022). Analysis of household food security based on the share of food expenditure in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1107(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1107/1/012090
Karagöz, A., & Kandemir, O. (2023). The Impacts of Pandemic on Food Security and Food Inflation. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 11(8), 1285–1297. https://doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v11i8.1285-1297.5717
Kenny, T.-A., Fillion, M., MacLean, J., Wesche, S. D., & Chan, H. M. (2018). Calories are cheap, nutrients are expensive: The challenge of healthy living in Arctic communities. Food Policy, 80, 39–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2018.08.006
Khan, M. N., & Suksawad, W. (2022). Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Thailand. Journal of Economics and Management, 18(2), 123–135.
Khan, M. N., Wang, Y., & Alsi, H. (2021). Climate Change and Food Security in Thailand. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development, 18(1), 75–88.
Kim, T. K. (2015). T test as a parametric statistic. Korean Journal of Anesthesiology, 68(6), 540–546. https://doi.org/10.4097/kjae.2015.68.6.540
Kotler, P., & Keller, K. L. (2020). Marketing Management (15th ed.). New London: Pearson Prentice Hall.
Koto, J. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh PAD, DAU dan DAK terhadap Kemiskinan pada Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumatera Barat dengan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi sebagai Variabel Intervening. Journal of Economic and Economic Education, 4(2), 192–209.
Kubitza, C., Hackfort, S., Opiyo, A., Rauh, C., Stokes, C. S., & Huyskens-Kessel, S. (2024). The effects of market-oriented farming on living standards, nutrition, and informal sharing arrangements of smallholder farmers: the case of African indigenous vegetables in Kenya. Food Security. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-024-01480-x
Kumar, R., Sharma, S., & Verma, A. (2022). Rising Food Prices and Global Food Security. Global Food Security, 32, 100556.
Kumareswaran, K., & Jayasinghe, G. Y. (2022). Systematic review on ensuring the global food security and COVID-19 pandemic resilient food systems: Towards accomplishing sustainable development goals targets. Discover Sustainability, 3(1), 29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-022-00096-5
Linggi, M. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Harga Saham pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Transportasi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2018–2022. Jurnal Neraca Peradaban, 89–95.
Lopez, C., & Ramos, R. (2019). Food Price Inflation and Its Socioeconomic Impacts in the Philippines. Philippine Journal of Development, 42(1), 1–20.
Makbul, Y. F. (2019). Infrastructure Development and Food Security in Indonesia: The Impact of the Trans-Java Toll Road on Rice Paddy Farmers’ Desire to Sell Farmland. Journal of Regional and City Planning, 30(2), 140–156.
Mardiah, D., & Mardiah, R. (2019). Implementasi Kebijakan Ketahanan Pangan: Studi Kasus di Kabupaten Pasaman Barat, Provinsi Sumatera Barat. Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia (JAI), 7(2), 147–158.
Marina, I. (2024). Dinamika Pasar Komoditas Pangan Strategis: Analisis Fluktuasi Harga dan Produksi. Paspalum: Jurnal Ilmiah Pertanian, 160–168.
Marina, I. H. (2022). Development of the Administration of the Sukahaji Mandiri Community of Sukahaji Food Group in Supporting Orderly Administration. BERNAS: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat, 3(3), 369–374.
Martinez, J., & López, M. (2023). Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Households. Journal of Consumer Affairs, 57(1), 203–220.
Maryunsiata, Y. D. (2020). Pengaruh Harga Komoditi Pangan terhadap Inflasi di Kota Medan. Agrica Jurnal Agribisnis Sumatera Utara, 13(1).
Matz, J. A., Kalkuhl, M., & Abegaz, G. A. (2015). The Short-Term Impact of Price Shocks on Food Security – Evidence from Urban and Rural Ethiopia. Food Security, 7(3), 657–679. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-015-0467-4
Mubarakkan, M. T. (2012). Produktivitas dan mutu jagung hibrida pengembangan dari jagung lokal pada kondisi input rendah sebagai sumber bahan pakan ternak ayam. Jurnal Penelitian Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan, 1(1), 67–74.
Nainggolan, K. (2008). Ketahanan dan Stabilitas Pasokan, Permintaan, dan Harga Komoditas Pangan. Analisis Kebijakan Pertanian, 6(2), 114–139.
Naylor, R. L., & Falcon, W. P. (2010). Food Security in an Era of Economic Volatility. Population and Development Review, 36(4), 693–723. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00354.x
Nessilson, J., & Wright, J. (2017). The State and Food Security Discourses of Indonesia: Feeding the Bangsa. Geographical Research, 55(2), 131–143. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-5871.12210
Novia, A. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi dan Tingkat Pengangguran terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Banten Periode 2018–2022. Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen dan Akuntansi, 287–299.
Nguyen, H. T. (2023). Agricultural Policies and Food Security in Southeast Asia. Asian Economic Policy Review, 18(2), 139–158.
Nguyen, H. T. (2023). Examining the Role of Agricultural Policies in Controlling Food Inflation in Vietnam. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 12(1), 101–115.
Obiora, C. U., Ezeh, M. C., Georges, C. I., Orjiakor, S. N., Ansigbogu, C. B., Nwabude, C. G., & Omologbe, F. (2023). The Impacts of Inflation on Food Security in Nigeria: A Review. Asian Journal of Food Research and Nutrition, 2(4), 476–496.
OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). (2021). Economic Surveys: Indonesia 2021. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Ozer, D. J. (1985). Correlation and the Coefficient of Determination. Psychological Bulletin, 97(2), 307–315. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.97.2.307
Pratiwi, D., & Hartati, N. (2020). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Harga Cabai di Kabupaten Sambas. Jurnal Agro Ekonomi, 31(2), 133–146.
Poulsen, M. N., McNab, P. R., Clayton, M. L., & Neff, R. A. (2015). A Systematic Review of Urban Agriculture and Food Security Impacts in Low-Income Countries. Food Policy, 55, 131–146.
Pujadi, A. (2022). Inflasi: Teori dan Kebijakan. Jurnal Manajemen Diversitas, 2(2), 73–77.
Purnawan, E. B. (2021). Financial Support Program for Small Farmers, and Its Impact on Local Food Security: Evidence from Indonesia. Horticulturae, 7(12), 546.
Putri, S., & Rahayu, P. (2021). The Role of Education in Reducing Income Inequality in Indonesia. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 36(2), 135–150.
Rahman, M. M., Ahmad, M. A., & Noor, M. A. (2019). Assessment of Food Security in Malaysia. Malaysian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 15(1), 45–60.
Rahman, M. M., Hashim, A., & Hossain, M. (2020). The Effects of Global Commodity Prices on Food Inflation in Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 12(1), 43–58.
Riyono, J. P. (2022). Forecasting Laju Inflasi Indonesia Menggunakan Rantai Markov. Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika, 8(1), 1–12.
Russell. (2018). Assessing Food Security Using Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys. Public Health Nutrition, 21(12), 220–2210.
Sangadji, E. M., & Sopiah. (2013). Perilaku Konsumen. Yogyakarta: Andi.
Sari, D., & Prabowo, M. (2021). Food Inflation and Its Impact on Food Security in Indonesia. Indonesian Journal of Economics and Business, 6(3), 210–225.
Saputro, W. A. (2020). Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di Kabupaten Klaten. Jurnal Agrica, 13(2), 115–123.
Sheytanova, T. (2015). The Accuracy of the Hausman Test in Panel Data: A Monte Carlo Study. Stockholm University.
Sholesha, L. S. (2018). Pengaruh Kualitas Pelayanan Terhadap Kepuasan Pelanggan di Ahass Sumber Jaya Maha Sakti Kecamatan Rogojampi Kabupaten Banyuwangi. Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pendidikan, Ilmu Ekonomi dan Ilmu Sosial, 12(1), 15–92.
Smith, J., & Brown, A. (2020). Consumer Behavior and Shopping Habits in the Digital Age. Journal of Consumer Research, 47(3), 450–466.
Sukmawati, D., & Dian, D. (2020). Off Season Planting System as Supply Function in Chili Pepper Availability (An Analysis of Rational Expectation Model in Red Curly Chili Pepper Farming Capsicum Annum L in Cikajang, Garut Regency). ICASSETH, 4–6.
Sukmawati, D. D. (2023). Changes in Subsidized Fertilizer Policy on Factors of Production and Farm Income of Red Chili (Capsicum Annuum L): Cianjur Regency. 1(3), 246–252.
Tan, S., & Cheong, P. (2022). Urban Food Security in Singapore. Sustainable Cities and Society, 77, 103553.
Thadewald, T., & Büning, H. (2007). Jarque-Bera Test and Its Competitors for Testing Normality: A Power Comparison. Journal of Applied Statistics, 34(1), 87–105. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760600994539
Thomas, S. L., & Heck, R. H. (2001). Analysis of Large-Scale Secondary Data in Higher Education Research: Potential Perils Associated with Complex Sampling Designs. Research in Higher Education, 42(5), 517–540. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011098109834
Thompson, A., Wilson, T., & Smith, R. (2022). The Role of Agricultural Technology in Stabilizing Food Prices. Agricultural Economics, 53(4), 675–689.
Toromade, A. S., Soyombo, D. A., Kupa, E., & Ijomah, T. I. (2024). Reviewing the Impact of Climate Change on Global Food Security: Challenges and Solutions. International Journal of Applied Research in Social Sciences, 6(7), 1403–1416. https://doi.org/10.51594/ijarss.v6i7.1300
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). (2020). Human Development Report 2020. New York: UNDP.
Wahyuni, N. (2020). Indikator Harga Pangan Kaitannya dengan Potensi Pertanian dan Industri Rumahtangga dalam Rangka Mewujudkan Ketahanan Pangan di Kota Lubuklinggau. JASEP, 6(2), 42–52.
Wahyuni, T. S. (2024). Pengaruh Fluktuasi Harga Cabai Rawit Merah terhadap Inflasi di Kabupaten Banyumas. Mimbar Agribisnis: Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis, 1866–1877.
World Bank. (2022). Indonesia Economic Prospects: Rebalancing for Growth. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
Yulita, N. N. (2024). Pengaruh Pendapatan, Pinjaman, Literasi Ekonomi, dan Gaya Hidup terhadap Pengeluaran Konsumsi Rumah Tangga di Desa Mojosari Kecamatan Kras Kabupaten Kediri. Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah, 1065–1081.
Zhang, X., & Wang, L. (2021). The Impact of Climate Change on Food Prices: Evidence from Global Data. Global Environmental Change, 68, 102244.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Ayuningtyas
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
